Political Science

Global warming is one of the most and maybe the most threat of the present time. It became an accomplished fact and the fact that the world began to change can be seen clearly.  What to do in such a situation, is it real to avoid this threat or it is worth to prepare to evident consequences and try to less them- these are the questions touched on in the article “It is already too late to stop climate change” by Coral Davenport, published in the National Journal at 29 November 2012.

One of the main statements of the author, which was made on the background of the 18th Annual Climate Change Summit, is about unavoidability of some effects of global warming despite all possible efforts. The word possibility emphasizes the unavoidability of negative consequences of global warming. Some natural catastrophes during the last years prove the necessity of fast measures by the most industry developed countries. Another question is where the border is when climatic changes become irretrievable, what harm they would make and what it would mean for the future.

So, the first level of threat, or, in other words, a trigger, is increasing of the average temperature in the world by two degrees Celsius. Some regions will become useless for agriculture because of aridization and it can lead to the provision prices growth and to the food crisis. Also, the level of the oceans will be up and, this will cause some troubles and disasters in the inhabited areas on the shores.

Despite all these threats, international efforts for avoiding this is not enough as it is claimed in some reports, for example, of U.N. Environment Program or International Energy Agency. Moreover, PricewaterhouseCoopers report states that industrial development should be stopped right now with the parallel decreasing of carbon emissions by more than 5% every year for more than three decades.

The global treaty about cutting of the carbon emission will began to act in 2020 at the best case, and it is unknown, whether it is possible at all and that efforts should be titanic. So, it is evident that this level of two degrees rising will be reached.  Also, it means that nations should prepare to global changes and different disasters. It will lead to the increase of the expenses to ensure safety of the specific areas and increase of taxation. This fact, as well as changed conditions of agriculture, can cause troubles in economics.

Nevertheless, the pure statement that climate will change and nations should adopt for this situation and take countermeasures is not enough. As it seems to some scientists, the problem is not in the point of two degrees, but in that fact that we will reach this level fast and that it will be only the beginning of the global problems.  The main problem consists in constant increasing of the temperature, even, moreover, the main issue is not that fact that situation will change for the worse but that it can become more and more worse. This tendency to worse will exist even with the present state of the industry. Continuing pollution of the environment can cause even higher level of the temperature increase. Hence, this will lead to more and more disastrous consequences, as well as to the reduction of the possibility to control the situation.

Another threat consists in the fact that there is no strong resolve to act for the cutting the pollution and preventing the increase of the temperature. Even more, despite the necessity and announced signing of the treaty in 2015, there is no occasion for the optimism. First, as it can be suggested, the following eight years nothing essential will be done. Existing level of pollution can cause rapid increasing of the temperature even without further industrial growth, but this is not seemed real. Also, despite the importance and necessity of the international treaties about reduction of carbon emissions, USA and China are the key actors of industrial developments in the world at that time.  Therefore, the most part of the responsibility for the rapid growth of the global temperature lies on these two countries. The key factors for the slow down the temperature rising is their high activity and firm position in the decreasing the carbon emissions and industrial pollution regardless of the global agreement. Also, it should be noticed that these countries will face the significant part of the negative consequences of the global warming, and even already have been suffered from them, while speaking about the USA and its cities situated on the sea-shore, which can be suffered from the floods and destructive storms.

To ensure the global agreement signing USA should demonstrate firm position and some steps that would have been done already to the beginning of the negotiation. Unfulfilled promises about passing the international treaties in the Congress are the weak spot of the USA according this issue that can be seen by the example of history of the signing the Kyoto protocol in 1997, and of the cup-and trade bill in 2009. These facts can be the essential obstacle for readiness of the other countries to limit their emissions if USA would not make the first move.

So, as it can be seen, the main problem is that changes will be, and they will be irreversible and disastrous. The adopting measures will need many resources. One of the main obstacles to avoid disastrous consequences is the lack of readiness to restrict the volume of carbon emissions by industrially developed countries.